German Real Estate To Make A Come Back In The Year 2025

FRANKFURT: Germany’s real estate market showed signs of recovery in 2024 after a challenging period, with property transactions edging up by double digits. However, experts caution that the sector will remain muted in 2025 due to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

Global real estate consultancy Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) reported that property deals in Germany reached 35.3 billion euros ($36.42 billion) in 2024, marking a 14 percent increase from the slump seen in 2023. Similarly, Colliers recorded transactions totaling 36.2 billion euros, reflecting a 12 percent rise over the previous year.

The data indicates a gradual recovery in Germany’s property sector, though the market remains well below its historical averages. Both JLL and Colliers predict moderate growth in transactions for 2025, but lingering economic pressures and global uncertainties are expected to hinder a full rebound.

Michael Baumann, Colliers’ head of capital markets in Germany, highlighted the impact of various external factors on the sector’s recovery. “Geopolitical uncertainties, the outcome of federal elections next month, and the broader economic landscape could dent the gradual recovery on the investment markets,” Baumann said.

Germany’s property boom over the past decade was fueled by historically low interest rates, which made financing attractive and spurred demand across the market. However, the real estate landscape shifted dramatically in 2022 when interest rates began to rise sharply.

The sudden jump in rates, coupled with soaring construction costs, forced many developers into insolvency as bank financing dried up. Deals that once seemed lucrative became untenable, leading to a freeze in new transactions.

Among European countries, Germany has borne the brunt of the real estate downturn. The combination of rising interest rates and higher building costs has significantly impacted developers and investors alike, leaving many projects stalled or abandoned.

Germany’s real estate struggles are part of a broader global trend. Markets in China and the United States have also experienced significant slowdowns due to similar financial pressures, reflecting the far-reaching effects of changing economic conditions.

 

Outlook for 2025

Despite the current challenges, industry experts maintain a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2025. While growth is expected to continue, it will likely be modest compared to previous years.

Both JLL and Colliers emphasized that the recovery trajectory will depend heavily on geopolitical stability, economic performance, and the results of Germany’s upcoming federal elections. Policymakers and investors alike will be watching closely to see how these factors influence the market in the coming months.

In conclusion, while Germany’s real estate market has shown signs of a rebound in 2024, the road ahead remains uncertain. The sector’s recovery will likely be gradual, with key hurdles to overcome before returning to pre-2022 transaction levels.